The United States is threatening to haul Teheran before the U.N Security Council. The US and its European allies are threatening sanctions including, of course, an embargo on Iranian oil. That threat has to be put in perspective. Crude oil set record highs yesterday. Regular unleaded gasoline that sold for $1.99.9 a gallon two weeks ago hit $2.499 at the pump yesterday. Those prices don’t reflect the reduction in supply resulting from pushing Iranian production off the world energy map. Will an oil embargo bring Iran to heel? The real question is whether the American public will stand for another half-buck a gallon.

That leaves the military option. The Pentagon is telling us that it must increase the manpower in Iraq by 30,000 this fall to provide sufficient security for Iraqi elections. Despite the Vice President’s declaration that the insurgency in Iraq was in its last throes there is no likelihood that will be an opportunity to reduce occupation forces any time soon. Policy makers in Teheran are sure to appreciate that the best defense of Iran lies in Fallujah. With the insurgency tying up America’s war making ability it will be in Iran’s interests to make sure that the insurgency is well supplied, well trained, and well financed. We simply don’t have the combat brigades available to fight another war.

Add to that the geographic reality that Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, that chokepoint through which oil from the Arabian Peninsula must move on its way to the west. Supply for the troops in Iraq must move through that same chokepoint. The new regime in Teheran is not likely to give much credence to the stick of sanctions and has shown that it is not interested in carrot cake offered by the Europeans. Iran will stick to Yellow Cake, thank you.