September 20, 2004 - April, they say, is the cruelest month. April 2004 proved the point. For three weeks US Marines tightened the noose around Fallujah preparing the battlefield for a final push to wrest the city away from Sunni insurgents. As the fighting intensified the casualty count went up. At the last minute the order came from Washington to stand down and to turn control of the city over to the insurgents. The calculus was political. The kind of house to house urban warfare would increase the Marine casualty count ten-fold. Collateral damage would be more extensive than any yet seen in the Second Iraqi War. The second factor imperiled the Bush timetable for creating a specious sovereignty shifting political responsibility to hand-picked Iraqis. The first factor was the more important in Washington’s calculation. The War President simply could not politically sustain the level of Marine casualties necessary to reduce Fallujah. In August the same cycle played itself out in Najaf. The battlefield was prepared; the noose tightened; Marines dies; and the order came to stand down.

Six months after the Siege of Fallujah was lifted US commanders in the field acknowledge that the Sunni Triangle and the Shi`ite strongholds in Sadr City and south of Baghdad are “no-go” zones for American troops. US commanders in the field tell us that there will be a major push to regain control of the countryside in November and December timed to prepare for Iraqi elections in January. Coincidentally launching the push to reduce the insurgents’ control of the countryside will defer the inevitable American casualties until after our own elections on November 2nd.

"I think every day that goes by that we don't remove these sanctuaries in Fallujah and other places in the Sunni Triangle, the more expensive it's going to be at the time we take this out. I would never have allowed the sanctuaries to start with. In the Fallujah issue, our general in Baghdad said we were going to go in and capture or kill those who were responsible for the deaths of Americans. And we went in, and then we pulled out. As Napoleon said, if you say you're going to take Vienna, you take Vienna." That was Senator John McCain on Fox News Sunday. He went on to say that the task will take an increase in troop levels. In his estimate 70-90,000 more army personnel and another 20-25,000 Marines.

Arizona’s other Republican Senator, John Kyl, appearing on CBS Face the Nation said that hand wringing was not going to win the war. That evoked a response from Chuck Hegel, “I don't think we're winning. In all due respect to my friend Jon Kyl, the term 'hand-wringing' is a little misplaced here. "The fact is, a crisp, sharp analysis of our policies are required. We didn't do that in Vietnam, and we saw 11 years of casualties mount to the point where we finally lost. The fact is, we're in trouble. We're in deep trouble in Iraq,"

As in Vietnam military policy is being shaped by politics. Military decisions are being driven by a domestic political agenda and the cost of delay is being paid by our sons and daughters coming home in a non-ending stream into Dover Air Force Base. When the push comes the stream will become a flood. That will be the November Surprise.